Day 1, Session 1 - Demographics and Numbers: Where Things Are and Where They're Headed
Panelists: Michael Cai (Parks Associates), Nic Mitham (K Zero), and Mary Ellen Gordon (Market Truths Limited)
Alright, I'll have to confess at this time that I hadn't drunk enough coffee and, having missed my shot at some CSI-chocolate, was still in the process of waking up and that's my (weak) excuse of why I didn't note who said what in my notes. I think Mary was the woman panelist, but without coffee, I really couldn't be sure.
Market penetration and branding once again were the kickoff in this first session (I think this was K Zero, but remember: no coffee). Market penetration for virtual worlds was fairly weak in Eastern Europe, South America, and Asia - but this also showed that a huge potential for more growth in the virtual world space that was ready to be tapped into (side note: South Korea has entered Second Life). Older users ("silver surfers") are also under represented (very much so as shown be data below) and represent a potential market growth point.
The fact that adult virtual worlds collectively paled in numbers when compared to the existing user-base of children/teen virtual worlds was hammered home. Success of branding, not only in MTV Virtual Worlds - but in Second Life, was shown by the dramatic influx of German users to Second Life following the advertised entry of BMW and Mercedes Benz into that space. In fact, every brand entry has resulted in a population increase in virtual worlds underscoring that brand activity is key to bringing in users and helping create successful use of that space.
A good brand or theme function can by itself be the basis for a successful virtual world, ala MTV Virtual Worlds, or virtual worlds/games, like Football Superstars, restating again the strength of brand spillover to virtual world usage. (I'll make a side note that most game-based virtual worlds, like Football Superstars, also exploit forums to help foster that sense of community, even while outside the virtual space - another example of that Social Web tie-in already used in successful spaces).
One of the reasons for the aforementioned age disparity is that the virtual medium is already internalized by younger users. They don't question its validity as it's already part of their world understanding.
For adult virtual worlds to grow, what's needed is easier interfaces, web-based virtual world clients (note the theme of interconnectedness again) and clients for mobile devices.
Some projected population growths by the end of 2008:
Second Life: growing from 10 million to 20 million users
There.com: one million bumping to seven million
Kaneva: increasing from 0.6 million to three million
HiPiHi: 0 users to 10 million (and this is just based on the initial offering to the huge potential of the Chinese market. HiPiHi has stated intentions of creating European and North American installs)
Whyville: three million to 10 million
Club Penguin: 15 million to 30 million
Football Superstars: 0 - 3 million
(And why was Activeworlds omitted from these figures?)
Stickiness was another point. Subscription based services can obviously justify their numbers with cold hard cash. Children/teen virtual worlds had great retention while adult virtual worlds do not, and even where active numbers exist, a significant number must be deducted for assumed alt(ernative) accounts.
And if adult virtual worlds pale to children and teen virtual world usage, they fare even worse to Social Web users when compared in a table listing percentage of users likely to adopt a particular medium after having tried it, based on age. Gender played a role here with many female users opting for the Social Web while the majority of virtual world users seemed to be male (And obviously 0% must be considered to not be an absolute but an indicator of a very low potential).
| Adoptive rates | ||
|---|---|---|
| Age range | Social Web | Virtual Worlds |
| 55+ | 2% | 0% |
| 35-54 | 14% | 5% |
| 25-34 | 40% | 12% |
| 18-24 | 71% | 10% |
| 13-17 | 35% | 5% |
Though these numbers might seem bleak, other numbers suggest the very strong potential for how engaging social virtual worlds are, as in these next numbers showing how children like to interact in virtual world games. K Zero's speaker noted early on that virtual worlds seemed to spread by word of mouth, a statement reinforced in the community management panel on Day 2 where it was noted that something like 60% of users of one of the older pre-teen virtual worlds (hence a lot of data to mine) used that world to interact with friends from school. This paints a picture that virtual worlds are often used to preserve and engage already existing social networks and a significant part of their strength lies in that application (something alluded to as well in Day 2's keynote) versus just using them to essentially socialize with people unknown outside of the virtual context.
For teens active in games, the following figures were offered:
76% like to game with others
42% like to game with Mom
40% like to game with Dad
only 19% prefer to game alone.
Again, indicating the strong social underpinning and foundation for virtual world engagement. When asked if they thought Second Life would be a good platform for conducting business:
55% said yes
30% maybe
only 5% said no
Brand perception in virtual worlds tended to follow the same level of brand perception in real life. Positive brands have an advantage that carries over to virtual worlds while neutral brands have to work harder on their images. Researchers have found that brands who are not even in virtual worlds can sometimes receive a positive perception due to unofficial "knock-offs". Brands who choose to effectively engage virtual spaces benefit more from organized events. The problem with such events, more so for Second Life I would imagine, is that technical limitations tend to put a cap on how many can actually be at the event without crashing the sim. My own observation from past reading, poorly anticipated, such events can have a reverse effect on the intended brand perception if the event fails to come off as planned.
The significant strength of virtual worlds for marketing relies in the nature of how people buy products based on recommendation or exposure, again, like the process of "viral growth", offering an example of purchase by the same social mechanisms.
57% consider purchasing a real product based on a friend's recommendation
55% recommend a product to someone else
25% look at a real product after seeing it in Second Life
9% buy a product in real life buy a product after seeing it in Second Life
8% have bought a product in Second Life
(Opinion: either I had a caffeine withdrawal twinge and jittered my notes (very possible) or I'd like to see the data for these figures which must be survey-based and how many samples were taken. If there was a 9% return rate, I would think that is amazing and Madison Avenue would be gushing over virtual worlds, which is hardly the case at the moment. Oh well...I will try to get an update and verification for this set)
Anyway, to conclude, there was a prediction that brand-focused events would increase both the use and popularity for virtual worlds and to expect more of same forthcoming (very nice prediction, btw. Note: the I am Legend tie in to SL)
HiPiHi
The Virtual Worlds in China session was running late and I jumped into that, listening to the question and answer and getting my first good look at HiPiHi through something a lot nicer than a YouTube video.
I have to say, HiPiHi looks very handsome. It does have a somewhat stylistic look the reminds me of some Korean MMOs, but doesn't suffer for it and I heard it runs pretty well - so Linden has some competition - or does it? HiPiHi was one of the first virtual world vendors that had called for working under open standards and in the limited time in the session, I saw them take some frank questions and give what seemed realistic answers regarding things like censorship and open sourcing. Sometime after this session, VWN announced that HiPiHi had signed a deal with Millions of Us to help bring in some of those brand-driven events made so much about in the convention.
I'm glad to hear about the IBM-Linden Lab joint ventures. I don't know how comfortable Linden Lab feels about cozying up to what they might deem a knock-off, but I would have been more glad to hear about an IBM - Linden Lab - HiPiHi joint venture. I think these folks have something to bring to the table; a vendor who is willing to really open up and work with the community and industry towards commonality is not always easy to find; they bring with them the strongest virtual world foothold in the Chinese market so why I'm not hearing about more HiPiHi hook-ups is beyond me.
Lunch
I had picked a nice distant table, hoping to unclutter my notes (reminder to self: order new laptop battery). But I was soon invaded, which was just as well, as I had a very lively and productive conversation about virtual world standards. We discussed things about the uses and implications of AI avatars. Considerations such as if businesses would or would not like to reveal in an OpenID sort of way that the "person" you are talking to is just a bot and how that might impact brand perception were discussed. We chatted about how hard it is to get people to adopt standards (one gentleman had been at the Day 0 event) once products are in place. He cited examples from broadcast standards and how people never want to give up their own standards even towards a common good. I brought up my notions for not reinventing the wheel, so to speak, by borrowing from the games industry, using libraries as downloads, and having the libraries themselves being part of the standardized offerings, noting that at least two of the vendors, albeit walled gardens, were already using this idea of local downloaded assets to the client to both improve performance and enrich the experience. I was very pleased and a bit surprised that the reaction from the table seemed very positive. Some people even grabbed the concept and were explaining it to others. (See, I thought it was an easy notion)
No comments:
Post a Comment